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Fundamental analysis or technical analysis- which is better

July 27, 2009 at 9:35 am

If you want to earn on forex market consistently, it is essential that you have a fixed strategy for carrying out your trades. Before investing, you should carry out thorough analysis of the forex market. It is absolutely essential that the trader is able to predict where the market is moving and find a platform that best suits his trading style. Basically, there are two ways to carry out analysis, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Ever since people started trading in currency market, there has been this comparison between the merits of the two trading strategies. Both come with their own benefits and loopholes.

 Fundamental analysis is more concerned with the fundamentals of the market. It focuses on the larger picture and tries to time the market from a long term point of view. The factors considered by this form of analysis are the economic stability of a nation, its political nature, the trade deficit of the country, the employment condition in the country, the GDP of that nation, government strategies, monetary plan etc.

 Technical analysis on the other hand has a smaller time frame in the mind. It focuses on the current market trends and predicts the market in the near future. It makes use of the various indicators available. Technical analysis also consists devising different types of charts and establishing some trends in the market. It draws its inspiration from the fact that the psychologies of traders remain more or less the same, whether you consider traders of current era or traders a decade ago. Hence, you can establish trends in the market and based on that hope that the markets will behave in similar fashion.

 A general observation is that long term investors rely more on fundamental analysis whereas day traders and swing traders rely more on technical analysis. But as a matter, no matter what is your trading style, each form of analysis is incomplete without the other. A technical analyst cannot ignore the data like the economic conditions of a country or social and political situation of the countries involved. Similarly, with fundamental analysis you can predict only the direction where the market is heading. To time the market, you need to take help of various indicators and charts. Fundamental analysis gives an idea about the direction of the market where as its technical counterpart vaguely gives the idea about the currency rates.

 The best example is that using the factors like the economic conditions, GDP, import and export etc, one can guess whether the currency is strong or weak. With that much knowledge, you will not earn much profit. So you will have to take help of technical analysis to define entry and exit points.

 To say small story short, each form of analysis is useless without the other. To earn big on a consistent basis, you have to form a formula based on both the analysis.

Impart fundamental analysis in your forex trading!

July 23, 2009 at 10:07 am

Implementing fundamental analysis in your forex trading style is also referred to as institutional Forex trading system. But what exactly is fundamental analysis? Fundamental analysis refers to learning the aspects that influence the global market. Forex traders are mostly in the dilemma of whether they should use technical analysis or fundamental analysis for their trading. According to the experts you should use both the analysis. In fact when you have a technical plan that is influenced by the fundamentals then there are great chances of you being correct.

Fundamental analysis is the major forex tool and so it is very important that you have the knowledge regarding it. You must be aware that every nation has its own central bank that is responsible for the welfare of the economy. These central banks look for the economic factors that affect the economy; following this they make changes in their policies. These factors are announced at a regular basis and the time of the announcement is referred to as advance. These factors are considered to be the fundamental indicators of the economy. There are some fundamental indicators which are called as market movers because when they are announced they provide the stream to move to the market.

Most significantly you need to know about fundamental analysis in forex trading. It is the market expectation of an indicator. Few analysts announce likely numbers for the indicators which has an impact on the market and forms as the basic of positioning. When the indicators are announced, market gets affected only when there is difference in the markets expectation.

Therefore fundamental analysis involves building up a plan. This plan should include analyzing well in advance say a week before about what fundamental indicators are to be announced. Guess the expected number in case it is available or try to predict. At initial stages it may seem to be difficult but then as dealing with it regularly will form a habit.

There are many fundamental indicators of the forex trading but their effect on the market vary as US indicators are the ones that have great impact on the market and that of Europeans Union’s have comparatively less impact. Also keep a tab on the central bank officers speaking off or giving hints about inflation, interest rates and many more. Words used by these officers like vigilant or very vigilant have great impact on currencies. At the time when inflation is booming in the market central banks have low interest rates and vice versa.

Therefore in forex analysis consider fundamental analysis which involves learning about what economic indicators reflect inflation, decision of the central bank and interest rates, by doing this you will be able to draw an additional forex tool to your side.

Forex fundamental analysis

July 21, 2009 at 11:21 am

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, and inflation and growth rates.

Forex Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points.

Just like other markets, the forex market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed ones are: interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates – can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings it can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

International Trade – If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an effect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be affected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the forex financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.