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Archive for November 24th, 2009

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 24/11/2009

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November 24, 2009 at 11:19 am

Review Commodity-Linked Currencies by

AUD, NZD, CAD

Commodity Linked Currencies:

Most majors have been range bound for the last month and some even longer then that. If you play support and resistance then your entries points are relatively defined.  However, what do you trade when handles are in between S & R?

The first assessments a trader should make are what currencies have recently retraced the most and why.  Secondly a trader needs to assess current market conditions.  Let’s apply these 2 rules.  Through last week, the Commodity Linked Currencies were down the most versus the Greenback.  The reason these pairs were down was due impart to Oil losing some momentum and a firming of the Dollar on risk aversion.

A brief assessment of current market conditions has the Dollar on its heels and Oil moving higher.  Additionally, EUR & GBP are currently near resistance levels so unless one thinks the EUR or GBP will finally break resistance one will need to look elsewhere for the best trade.

INSERT CHART OIL

The AUD, NZD, and CAD are among the Commodity Linked Currencies.  These pairs are currently the furthest away from resistance and therefore have the best risk to reward ratio. Couple that with a weak Dollar and overall strong commodity prices and you expect these pairs will move the most. Chart A above displays the movement in the price of Oil against the AUD, NZD and CAD. From this Chart you can see the positive correlation in price action.  As Oil appreciates so do these currencies and vice versa.

The bar chart below displays percent gainers and loser against the Dollar for November 23rd.  You will notice that the NZD, AUD and CAD are in the top 4. Add this analysis to your repertoire and it provides another venue for trading in these market conditions.

INSERT BAR CHART

When Will the Gold “Bubble” Burst by GoLearn Forex

Positive economic data released today pushed Global Equity Markets higher once again.  In Canada, a better than expected print on Retails Sales moved the CAD higher as well as month over month figures that published at 1%.   In addition, last month’s print was revised upwards as well.

In the U.S., Existing Home Sales month over month came in at 10.1% versus expectations of 2.3%. The DJIA moved ahead 132.71 points to 10,450.95 marking a high for year.  All of this was bad news for the Greenback as the DXY dropped to 75.125.  The CAD was the big gainer against the Dollar, up 1.4%.

Gold continues to make new highs striking 1,174 before settling back to close at 1,165.20, a $14.60 gain for the day.  Some analyst are concerned about Gold’s appreciation and see it as the next asset bubble to crash, however, other say the move is justifiable and that higher Gold’s price will prevail.  Oil clawed its way back from a recent lull to hit an intra-day high of 79.92, before closing the day at 77.68

Economic data releases due out tomorrow include GDP in the EUR zone as well as in the U.S.  Case Schiller Home Price Index will print tomorrow as well as the U.S Consumer Confidence numbers.  Today’s Home Sales print and the prior day’s Retail Sales figures in the U.S beat expectations. This may dampen the effects that the U.S Consumer Confidence figures and Case Schiller Price Index have.  Normally these can be market movers but sales figures right now are in the driver’s seat.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 24, 2009

EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index Forecast  92.50  Previous  91.90

USD GDP (QoQ)  Forecast    3.00%  Previous  3.50%

USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

AUD Construction Work Done (QoQ) Forecast  0.10%  Previous  -0.10%

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

daily forex review | Tags: ,

Daily Review 24/11/2009

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November 24, 2009 at 10:45 am

USD Dollar (USD)

The rally in Europe and Wall Street put pressure on the Dollar that fell across the board and rose only against the Yen. The existing home sales data that came at 6.1M, better than the 5.7M expected and comments about interest rate staying at low levels for some time fueled stocks. Dow Jones closed at the highest level in 13 months and ended the session with a gain of 1.29%. NASDAQ rose by 1.4% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.36%. Gold (XAU) posted new record highs above $1,170. Crude Oil jumped at the early trading hours but closed almost unchanged near the 77.5$ a barrel. Today, the GDP expected at 3% vs. 3.5% previously. The CB Consumer Confidence expected unchanged at 47.7. Also, later Federal Open Market Committee will be expected.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro strengthened against the Dollar trying to touch the 1.5 level but failed to breach above. The French PMI came out 54.2 worse than expected 55.4. The German Manufacturing PMI came out 52 better than expected 51.7. The Manufacturing PMI came out 51 worse than expected 51.4. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4832 and with a high of 1.5. Today, the German GDP expected unchanged at 0.7%. The German IFO Business Climate Index expected 92.5 vs. 91.9 previously. The Industrial New Orders expected at 0.6% vs. 2% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4948

Resistance

1.5010

1.5050

1.5090

Support

1.4920

1.4880

1.4855

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound gained for the first time in 5 days against the Dollar following the rally in stocks as growing confidence in the global economic recovery is gathering pace. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6470 and with a high of 1.6647. Today, the BBA Mortgage Approvals expected 44K vs. 42.1K previously. The Business Investment expected -3.5% vs. -10.2% previously.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6565

Resistance

1.6670

1.6725

1.6775

Support

1.6585

1.6535

1.6500

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen fell across the board and was among the worst performers of the day. The pair continues to move at a very slow pace. Still, the pair has no clear cues for next trend development. USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.56 and with a high of 89.17. Today, the Bank of Japan Monthly Report is expected.

USD/JPY-Last: 88.88

Resistance

89.35

89.50

89.65

Support

88.90

88.75

88.50

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar currency jumped against the US Dollar as the Core Retail Sales came out 1.1% better than expected 0.4%. The rise in gold and crude oil raised the demand of currencies tied to commodity prices. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0538 and with a high of 1.0707. Today, No economic data expected.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0590

Resistance

1.0630

1.0665

1.0690

Support

1.0540

1.0505

1.0475

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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Factors to determine in online Forex trading

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November 24, 2009 at 9:47 am

The value of any country’s currency is influenced by several factors such as political, social environment, the trade deficit and the economics of the country. These factors greatly influence the currency of a country. When the current deficit of Government increases, the value of currency will fall. As the Government reduces its deficit, the currency begins to recover value and the exchange rate becomes more positive. The similar relationship holds with a trade deficit of a country. When the country imports several goods as well as services than the exports, it will have a negative impact on the currency in Forex online.
Inflation can lessen the capability pf a currency’s unit to purchase less so the currency loses its worth in Forex trading. When the inflation becomes out of control, the currency is respected less as it’s also viewed as unstable. When the inflation rate starts to decline, the currency starts to increase in value. Political as well as social changes play chaos with the exchange rates of currency. Changes in the regime, which are viewed negatively lowers the worth of the country’s currency in the short term and continue in to the long-term in Forex trading.

When the present Government makes decisions, which are looked at negatively, it decreases the value of currency as well. The opposite can also happen. Latest Government officials are able to make policy changes, which are viewed positively by the rest of world and which can increase the currency’s value. For the U. S, interest rates as well as price of oil have a major effect on the value of the United States dollar.

Interest rates can affect how much it is going to cost to borrow money and how much can be obtained on investments in Forex online. Historically when the United States raises its rates, it can attract foreign investors. Those investors should sell their own currency so that they can purchase United States dollars to buy treasury bonds.  When the interest starts to drop or the insight is that the rates will not sire any more, investors may buy Euros as an alternative investment that can lower the worth of the United States dollar.

The United States relies on foreign oil production, Several United States industries also rely on oil. Increase in the oil’s price means an increase in their expenses as well as a drop in gains. In a same way, the dependency of a country on oil can influence how the currency of country is valued and will be impacted by changes in the prices of oil. The dependency United States on oil can make the dollar more sensitive to oil prices as compared to countries that are not so much dependant.  The value of the dollar drops when the price of oils rises.

Forex trading tools | Tags: , , ,

Powerful Forex trading strategies

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November 24, 2009 at 9:46 am

If you want to obtain huge profits in Forex trading, you need to catch best Forex trend. In this article, we provide you methods. If you use these methods correctly you will catch every superior Forex trend that leads you to long-term currency trading success. Most newbie in Forex trading do not bother about trying to trend forex lengthier terms rather than trying Forex scalping. Our explained methods mainly focus on small moves and they catch small gains, as many short-term moves are random, this will lead to equity eliminate.
Other alternatives include swing trading and long-term Forex trend following. In this article we mainly discuss about the Forex trend following. If you look at Forex trading chart, you can see long-term trends, which last for months. These moves also yield serious profits. The good way to catch the serious moves is to make use of Forex trading strategy that is based around breakouts. A breakout is just a move on a Forex trading chart where a new high or low is made and support is broken. It is reality that many leading moves begin from new highs or lows.

Many Forex traders commit the mistake to wait for the breakout to come back and obtain in the best price; however these traders never obtain on board. The grounds for this is when a breakout takes places, you have a new powerful trend as well as pullback that is not likely to take place.

While it might appear that you are not buying or selling at the greatest level, you are in terms of the odds of the trend continuing. Most forex traders make the mistake of waiting for the breakout to come back and get in at a better price but these traders never get on board. The grounds for this are if a breakout occurs, then you have a new strong trend and a pullback is not very likely to occur. A number of Forex trades do not purchase or sell breakouts and that is exactly why it is a best and powerful method.

The only point that you should keep in your mind is that a support that is ruined must be valid and which means at least three points in at two different time frames. The more valid the level is the additional tests and the big the spacing between the tests is. Of course not each breakout can keep and some reverse, these are false and give you losses. You hence require confirming every move. All you require doing to achieve this is to out a few momentum indicators in your trading system so that you can confirm dealing signal. These indicators provide you an opinion of the power and velocity of the price. There are several to choose from.

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