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daily forex analysis | Tags: ,

GoLearn Forex Analysis 23/11/2009

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November 23, 2009 at 10:07 am

GBPUSD – A Closer Look by GoLearn Forex

GBP/USD:

Range bound trading continues.  It is especially obvious when MA is moving horizontal.  Notice on the daily Cable chart below that the 50 SMA has been horizontal since late July while the 100 SMA turned horizontal in late September.  The 100 SMA is above 50 SMA which is typical of a falling price environment. Additionally, the last time a complete candle appeared below the 50 SMA price fell an additional 4.54%.

INSERT CHART

If you have been trading support and resistance then you have been very successful recently. The yellow rectangular area indicates upper level resistance. Those who trade pure reversals would look to make short entries there.

Point “A” defined our first high in the range.  We make Point “A” the first level of resistance, R1.  Points “B” & “C”encroach but never breach R1.  These would become Reversal Trades 1 & 2.  Point “D” breaches R1 before retracing. Points “E”, “F” and “G” look similar to  “A”, “B”, and “C”.  Point “H” breaks resistance before retracing its gains.

For Points “B, C, E, F, and G” if you were trading straight S&R you would have fared very nicely.  However, for Points “D & H” indicated by the red arches you would have mostly likely been stopped out before picking up the reversal.

With proper risk controls traders will minimize their max loss on every position.  A forex trader cannot expect to win on every trade so choosing the best trades and entry points is essential.  With the use of Candle patterns, Momentum indicators and Oscillators a trader can time the entry where the lull in momentum begins (blue vertical lines) which may signal a reversal.  The Chart below uses the MACD with a histogram to demonstrate falling momentum. The histogram more clearly reveals the convergence of the MACD with the Average.  If you wait for 3 full bars with lower highs (red arrows) to form and ensure that price is still at the point of resistance you can avoid tripping a stop loss and possibly end up in another winning forex trade.

INSERT CHART B

Closing in on Official Shopping Season by GoLearn Forex

The DJIA was flat Friday closing the day down just 14.28 points.  The week saw the DJIA gain 9/10th of a percent while most Global Equity Markets finished the week in negative territory.  The Greenback gained as risk was held in check as the DXY closed above 75.57 in the forex market, for the first time since November 12th.

The Kiwi was the big loser, giving up 3.2% and the cable gave up 1.84% after breaking through near term resistance.  The week was marked by global concern over whether the market can sustain their phenomenal 62% gain since the DJIA hit its March lows.  Adding to investors worries will be the lack of liquidity in the market through the remainder of the year.

Monday and Tuesday maybe volatile in the Forex Markets as the U.S has Holiday on Thursday.  Typically and the preceding Wednesday and following Friday are marked by very light volume days.  Friday kicks off the official Holiday shopping season.  On the economic data front Canadian Retail Sales are set to print on Monday and PMI in the EUR zone is due out as well.  U.S Existing Home Sales will print tomorrow and expect that traders will be watching this closely in light of the poorer than expected new home data that came out last week.  A print below expectations should pull even more risk off the table and we would expect the Dollar to strengthen.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 23, 2009

EUR  ECB President Trichet Speaks

CAD  Core Retail Sales (MoM)  Forecast  0.40%  Previous  0.50%

CAD Retail Sales (MoM)  Forecast  0.60%  Previous  0.80%

USD Existing Home Sales  Forecast  5.70M  Previous  5.57M

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

daily forex review | Tags: ,

Daily Review 23/11/2009

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November 23, 2009 at 9:57 am

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar finished the day and the week with gains across the board except against the Yen but fell in the beginning of the trading session on Sunday. The fall in stocks with an increase in risk aversion helped Greenback recover. Wall Street ended Friday in negative. The Dow Jones ended with a loss of 0.14%, The NASDAQ fell by -0.5% and the S&P 500 decreased by -0.32%. The Gold (XAU) rose and closed above the 1050$ an ounce. The Crude Oil closed almost unchanged near the 77.5$ a barrel. Today, The Existing Home Sales expected at 5.7M vs. 5.57M previously.

EURO (EUR)

The Dollar posted gains against the Euro after falling in the last two weeks. The pair is still moving in ranges between the highs of the year at 1.5060 and 1.4800. The rally of the Dollar was not enough on Friday to break below the support. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.48 and with a high of 1.4934. Today, The French PMI expected at 55.4 vs. 55.3 previously. The German Manufacturing PMI expected at 51.7 vs. 51.1 previously. The Manufacturing PMI expected at 51.4 vs. 50.7 previously. Also, the ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet will speak.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4908

Resistance

1.4900

1.4935

1.4975

Support

1.4800

1.4770

1.4730

British Pound (GBP)

The pair has lost most of the gains achieved during previous days. Due to the forecast of Industrial countries, U.K will keep the interest rate low for extended period till a recovery could be seen. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6460 and with a high of 1.6674. No economic data expected today.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6505

Resistance

1.6540

1.6575

1.6620

Support

1.6460

1.6425

1.6355

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese currency still flat in a tight range around 89.00 areas, pair has no clear cues for next trend development. USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.67 and with a high of 89.02. Today, Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Labor Thanksgiving Day.

USD/JPY-Last: 88.83

Resistance

89.15

89.40

89.65

Support

88.80

88.60

88.30

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian dollar ended lower for a fourth consecutive session, capping off a losing week for the currency in which investor aversion to risk dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies such as the Canadian Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0613 and with a high of 1.0732. Today, the Core Retail Sales expected at 0.4% vs. 0.5% previously.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0667

Resistance

1.0785

1.0820

1.0850

Support

1.0655

1.0620

1.0600

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

Charts, Forex trading tools | Tags: , , , , ,

Should free forex charts be used in forex day trading?

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November 23, 2009 at 8:34 am

The theory of Forex charts appears to be extremely significant for the process of foreign exchange dealings. With such a means, the classification of the technical prototypes and the examination of the currency progression get a lot simpler. It is on the foundation of these charts that market analysts are able to predict market movements and possible future trends. All the costly courses that educate people about the brokerage center on Forex charts analysis. It is a good idea to utilize the various free forex charts available in order to expand your knowledge of the currency market.
The development of a number of currency pairs can be monitored on specialized free forex charts. Yet the more intricate tools can only be comprehended by someone who has appropriate knowledge and has been trained to read these. Somebody who is not well read and lacks proper knowledge would only get puzzled looking at these charts. Based on your requirements you can zip into various chart segments. You also have the option of selecting alternate chart types for amplified examination purposes. All the observations you make based on the free forex charts can be accumulated or they can be used for surveillance reasons and hence develop into an opening point for the formation of your distinct individual system.
Few free charts are accessible in the flash format and they offer live data feeds with immediate particulars on the currency crosses. The user has the alternative of accumulating distinct indicators that are not there in the handy design like the Bollinger bands, price oscillator and Envelopes. The charts can be observed as per the time frame set by you based on personal requirements. Move from simple to more intricate, as the accurate path to train for good trade on Forex.
It is precarious to employ free forex charts while day trading forex. If you do this the loss of funds can be extensive especially if you are a novice and have just stated with the forex trade. The finest approach to initiate your apprenticeship is by learning about the swing trade or long term trends. This builds the quintessence that ought to be trailed in nearly all charts. The disciplined and enduring trader understands the fact that the major impending profit can only be attained if they look for long term trends. It is recommended to opt for simple free forex charts since they are simpler to trail, examine and understand as they comprise of smaller number of elements to break.
The one most important thing that you need to keep in mind is that you must not envisage or conjecture as this generally leads to loss. Instead you must attempt to comprehend, examine and assess the odds.

Charts, Forex trading tools | Tags: , , , ,

Forex Charts: Apply this combination to increase your profit level

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November 23, 2009 at 8:33 am

If you are utilizing forex charts and technical analysis, then by means of the plain combination mentioned below, you can grab the big trends that help generate high profit.
Following is how this combination appears on forex charts and the method of turning it into revenue.
Below mentioned is the 3 step process that can be incorporated in the forex strategy to make good returns.
1. The weekly trend
A very small number of forex traders observe the weekly charts. The weekly chart depicts the long term movements and you can have a look at the significant trends.
While viewing the weekly chart you just require searching for suitable support and resistance.
2. The daily chart
If you encompass support and resistance that is valid or suitable then probability is that there are stops in the wake of these levels and trend following systems coming up to lash in if these levels are busted, so the break would prolong and a fresh trend would build up.
3. Getting confirmation
The way to observe if a break would persist or overturn is to glance at price momentum.
There are various momentum indicators to glance at but two that actually work well in combination are the stochastic and the Relative Strength Index RSI.
Look for a mounting RSI and for the stochastic lines showing the direction of the break in case they have traversed with bullish or bearish deviation.
It is essential to learn how to use these indicators. These are quite simple to study and apply.
If you are able to work according to the above mentioned guidelines you would be able generate a good amount of profit. They don’t crop up frequently just a couple of times a year, but these are actually the trends that bring in huge profit and very low risk.
Most traders do not prefer purchasing breakouts, they feel they have overlooked the first fraction of the move and wish to hang around for the retraction to get an improved rate – but on suitable breaks rates stir rapidly and you require being in
as rates would not come back swiftly and you would by no means get such a price again.
If you can purchase or vend breakouts, understand the fact that they usually pile up huge gains so missing a small bit of the preliminary move is all right you would come across many more. And yes it is missing this small bit that provides you the probabilities in your favor.
The greater part of forex traders can’t expressively purchase or vend breakouts. But a majority of forex traders do not even make profit in this trade. Therefore, you need not bother about this. Just slot in the above in your forex trading, it can actually work wonders.

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