Archive for November 18th, 2009
November 18, 2009 at 10:54 am
USD/JPY:
The Yen has lost ground to every other currency in the G-10 except the Dollar, since March of 2009. The BOJ has always favored a weak currency as it supports their large export business which accounts for over 20% of their GDP.
INSERT CHART a
The Chart above is a daily JPY chart looking back through this past March. Although the Yen trended down it was extremely volatile through August. After mid August it continued a less volatile trend towards a handle of 88.00 before retracing to 92.00. Since mid October it has been struggling to breach near term resistance at 88.00.
On the daily JPY chart below you can see we added Bollinger Bands (BB). BB are very good during range trading and very dangerous during trending markets. BB are best understood as a mean or avg as indicated by the yellow dotted line. The red lines represent a standard deviation from the mean. In short you expect price to be somewhere between the 2 red lines. When price nears one of the bands you expect it to return toward the mean, what traders call a reversal.
INSERT CHART b
Notice that from March through August the same period of time shown on Chart A above that price moves precisely the way we expect with BB. The green swing line shows price moving from one band to the next. However, towards the end of August price does not move towards the mean as the JPY has started to trend. This is why BB are difficult to use during trending markets as we do not expect price to move back towards the mean.
There are a number of tools available to you via your charting platforms that can help you isolate when to expect the BB reversal versus a false reversal signal. On the lower half of Chart b the Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps traders identify when a trend is strong and may continue. The red vertical line that runs through the false reversal signal also shows that the RSI indicates we are in the footholds of a strong trend. Typically an RSI descending after breaching 70 (over bought) or ascending after breaching 30 (oversold) indicate a weakening trend.
Currently the JPY is sitting on the lower band of the BB and the RSI reads low in terms of trend strength. Additionally, the Yen is bumping up against R1 and R2 is fairly close as well. For now it appears that the trend has slowed.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
November 18, 2009 at 10:32 am
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar gained versus most majors as Industrial Production came out weaker, lowering risk appetite. Industrial Production came out 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. PPI came out weaker with 0.3% versus 0.6% forecast. TIC Long-Term Purchases came out better with 40.7B versus 27.3B expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.27% and 0.29%. Crude gained by 0.68% closing at 79.44$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) remained almost unchanged with 0.16% change closing at 1140.5$ an ounce. Today, Building Permits are expected higher with 0.59M versus 0.57M prior and Core CPI is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior. Housing Starts are expected higher with 0.61M versus 0.59M and Crude Inventories are expected with 1.2M versus 1.8M prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro weakened versus the Dollar and the Pound as risk appetite weakened and ECB\’s president Trichet said a strong Dollar is important for the world economy. European Trade Balance came out better than expected with 6.8B versus -0.9B expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4806 and with a high of 1.4998. Today, European Current Account is expected with 0.6B versus -1.3B prior. ECB President Trichet will speak in Frankfurt.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4870
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Resistance
|
1.4900
|
1.4925
|
1.4955
|
|
Support
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1.4810
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1.4740
|
1.4703
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British Pound (GBP)
The Pound remained almost unchanged versus the Dollar as CPI figures came out better than expected but Industrial Production in the U.S lowered investors Risk Appetite. CPI came out 1.5% versus 1.4% expected and RPI came out -0.8% versus -0.9% expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6755 and a high of 1.6872. Today, MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected with -47 versus -51 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6800
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Resistance
|
1.6850
|
1.6900
|
1.6955
|
|
Support
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1.6750
|
1.6670
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1.6625
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Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Euro and weakened versus the Dollar as risk appetite lowered after Industrial Production in the U.S came out weaker than expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.53 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.44 and a high of 133.58. Today, All Industries Activity is expected with -0.1% versus 0.9% prior.
USD/JPY-Last: 89.17
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Resistance
|
89.65
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90.00
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90.18
|
|
Support
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88.80
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88.60
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88.25
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Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar dropped as Risk Appetite weakened following U.S production data. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0464 and a high of 1.0617. Today, Canadian CPI is expected with 0.2% versus 0% prior and Core CPI is expected with 0% versus 0.3% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0535
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Resistance
|
1.0620
|
1.0680
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1.0735
|
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Support
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1.0475
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1.0450
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1.0425
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Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
November 18, 2009 at 6:46 am
There is nothing that can have an impact on your gains than the forex spreads provided to you by your forex broker. However, these spreads in the charts point out the forex markets might be a bit confusing for a new trader to understand. Hence, the marketing from any such forex brokers might prove to be deceiving. Nearly, all the forex brokers do claim of having the best forex charts as well as spreads in that field. Nevertheless, what it means and how can one come to know if your broker is giving what they do assure in the former stage.
If you wish to understand the concept of spread, you have to understand what it is. Spread is nothing but the difference between the price you sell and the price you purchase at. It is generally quoted in pips. A pip is a small unit of difference between the 2 currencies in a quotation. If the quotation between the USD / EUR at the present time is 102222/4, then the spread would be equivalent to two pips that is the difference between two and four. If the quotation is 1.2222/4, then the spread would be equivalent to 1.5 pips.
Spread is the amount by which the forex brokers make their many or say profits. Wider forex spreads as well as charts results in I high asking price and a low bid price. The outcome of this is that you would pay higher while you purchase and receive less while selling. Hence, making it more complex to evaluate your profits. The forex brokers however cannot earn the entire spread, particularly while they are hedging the positions of the client. This spread aids in compensating the broker towards any risk that is feels right from the time it starts trading with a client to his net exposure being hedged.
The forex spreads and forex charts have a great impact on the return of your trading approach in great ways. Being a trader, your interest would be purchasing low and selling at a higher cost like that of in the commodities and futures trading. The forex spreads and charts indicate purchasing at a high cost and selling it at a lower one. A half-pip low spread does not sounds like much, however it can easily indicate the difference between a profitable trading approach and one that is not.
The tighter the spread is the better things would happen with you. However, tight forex spreads and charts are valuable only if they are paired with better implementation. The best example of this is while your screen demonstrates a tight spread, however, your trade is full of new pips in the incorrect positions or that is being rejected mysteriously.
When it takes place again and again, it indicates that your broker is showing tight forex spreads and charts, and is delivering wider forex spreads and charts effectively.
November 18, 2009 at 6:45 am
In order to understand Forex signals (also called the FX signals, currency trade signals or foreign exchange signals) we must first understand the idea behind trade signals, as the said signals are but a division of these.
Trade signals are information feeds from trading sources. In the latter half of the 19th century up to the 1960s, such signals were mostly conveyed through the means of ticker devices that made use of telegraph, then later on radio and telephone infrastructure that was already in place. However, fortunately the lowered cost and high accessibility of computers coupled with high rates of internet technology adoption by past generations has permitted traders with even small amounts of capital to access real time information on trade signals (including Forex signals) from an extensive variety of sources.
It is quite noteworthy that the format used today to display trade signals and Forex signals in particular is a direct descendant of the old ticker machine tape formats. You can regularly see these trade signals on runners on television channels that specialize in business news.
Therefore, Forex signals are kind of trade signals that are focused on the currency exchange market or the Forex market. They are essential; otherwise Forex traders will not have any information concerning what is available for trade in the market in a timely manner. Hence, if there were signals, it might be very complicated or even impossible for a trader to decide whether to buy or sell currencies, or even enter or leave the Forex market when it is needed. Using these signals will facilitate the traders with possible informed decisions on what actions a trader should make when it come to the Forex trade.
The signals are used by all kinds of traders, not just those playing the Forex trade. Importers and exporters too need to pay attention to exchange rates so that selling and purchasing products and services could be done at opportune moments when money could be saved and the cost of trading slashed. Evidently, parties like currency traders, central banks, investment banks and various institutions that have currency exchange interests who have direct interests in the foreign exchange market also have it in their interests to closely monitor and otherwise utilize Forex signals
Predominantly casual or novice traders do not need any specialized technology in order to be able to receive or make use of these signals. Yet for serious trading, there exists ample variety of technology, majority of it proprietary and some available online, that not only allows traders to obtain Forex signals, but also permits them to analyze better trends and movements so that more profitable decisions could be made more consistently. The supremacy to make use of the said signals in such ways was once the domain of large institutions but now it can be said that such capabilities to exploit Forex signals are well within reach of anyone with reliable internet access.