November 17, 2009 at 11:31 am
AUD/USD:
The Aussie continues to strengthen against the Greenback and is now retesting short term resistance at .9343. The Aussie completed the top portion of a double top (as depicted on the Chart by the 2 white boxes) last week but is on the verge of a breakout.
INSERT CHART
The AUD has been holding support along the 40 SMA since mid March. The 40 SMA is currently sitting at .9045. A break below support in addition to a close below the previous higher low (indicated by the red circle) would be a signal to open a Short AUD position.
For the moment we favor a Long AUD position. You can see the formation of an ascending triangle (dotted white lines) with the 40 SMA acting as the slope of the triangle. Anticipated continued weakness in the USD, the AUD’s close tie to commodities, the strength of Australian economy, the carry trade, and the strong trend on the Chart certainly point towards continued AUD strength. We are looking to take some profit at .95 and a further position reduction at .98
NZD/USD:
There are quite a few technicals to note on the Kiwi’s most recent price action. Firstly, similar to nearly all the other G-7′s versus the Dollar the NZD has been trending long and hard. However, back at the end of October it looked like the trend was about to break. The Kiwi hit .76 and started to fall as indicated by the 2 orange parallel lines. The appearance of those line when preceded by a strong trend is called a Pennant.
The 50 day MA has been holding support for the NZD since March. The Pennant reached the 50 SMA and price bounced off of support. Near term resistance is just north of .76. We would maintain a Long NZD position. Near term PNL could be taken at .76 while we target .78 for more significant profit taking.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
November 17, 2009 at 11:25 am
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar dropped versus the other after Fed Chairman Bernanke said interest rates would remain low to spur growth. Retail Sales came out at 1.4% better than 1% forecast but Core Retail Sales came out 0.2% worse than 0.4% forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones reached new 13 month highs with 1.38% and 1.45% gains respectively after Bernanke\’s speech. Crude gained by 3.3% closing at 78.87$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) jumped by 2.02% closing at 1140.4$ an ounce. Today, PPI is expected stronger with 0.6% versus -0.6% prior. TIC Long-Term Purchases are expected with 27.3B versus 28.6B prior. Industrial Production is expected with 0.4% versus 0.7% prior. FOMC Member Lacker will speak about his economic outlook at the State House Appropriation Committee in Richmond.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro gained versus the Dollar after Fed Chairman Bernanke commented the interest rates will remain low, spurring Risk Appetite. European CPI and Core CPI came out as expected with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4880 and with a high of 1.5014. Today, European Trade Balance is expected with -0.9B versus 1B.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4970
|
Resistance
|
1.5020
|
1.5050
|
1.5115
|
|
Support
|
1.4880
|
1.4825
|
1.4740
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound reached new 3 month highs versus the Dollar after Bernanke\’s speech spurred risk appetite. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6657 and a high of 1.6876. Today, CPI is expected stronger with 1.4% versus 1.1% prior. RPI is expected with -0.9% versus -1.4% prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6825
|
Resistance
|
1.6875
|
1.6900
|
1.6955
|
|
Support
|
1.6790
|
1.6750
|
1.6670
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen gained versus the Dollar, Euro and the Pound as it Japan\’s economy showed the fastest growth pace in more than 2 years pulling Japan out of the recession. Tertiary Industry Activity came out weaker with -0.5% versus 0.1% expected and 0.3% prior. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.74 and a high of 89.72 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 133.18 and a high of 134.32. No major economic data is expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 89.10
|
Resistance
|
89.40
|
89.65
|
90.00
|
|
Support
|
88.75
|
88.60
|
88.25
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar as stocks and commodities gained. Manufacturing Sales came out 1.4% better than 1% expected and -1.8% prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0425 and a high of 1.0540. No major economic data is expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.048
|
Resistance
|
1.0515
|
1.0575
|
1.0610
|
|
Support
|
1.0417
|
1.0380
|
1.0315
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
November 17, 2009 at 6:50 am
The forex charts are the best, time effective and proved methods of making great profits, however the traders are not able to make use of them precisely. Below given are some of key points that will assist you in making great profits.
If you observe any forex chart, you will come across bigger trends that last for a number of months and the trends that follow these are quite profitable. If you wish to make money out of it, you should understand a key fact:
Most of the bigger trends begin and continue from the breakouts to new heights and lows on the forex charts. You should always go with these breaks and that’s the point, most of the forex traders do not. They do keep on waiting for the pullbacks that never comes and hence are left behind.
It is suggested to be patient while using the forex charts. You will not be rewarded for your efforts or number of times you are trading, but for being precise with your trading indicator. There are forex traders who do trade just a few times in a month and even then make triple digit profits. So, you need to wait for the correct opportunity.
If you have a trend that you would like to strike, it is suggested to have a check on the price momentum if it is in your favor or not and also ensure that you are using the momentum signals displaying the price acceleration in the direction that you wish to trade. Two important one that you can learn within no time are the RSI and Stochastic. When you combine these two, it will definitely increase the chances of your success by getting the odds in your favor.
You should however, never believe any person who suggests that there is a mathematical formula for the market movements. There is no such formula in existence. If there would be any such formula all of us would be aware of the prices in advance and hence no market would be there in existence. So forget about predicting the market situations and try to trade the real market in real price.
All you have to do is understand the possibilities of the forex market and like that of a successful poker player; you might not win every game. Keep on trading the odd and you will surely win in the long term. Whenever you are making use of the forex charts in your forex trade, remember the simpler method of forex trading you adapt, the better it is. Simple systems have a tendency to be robotic and very few elements to break as compared to that of the complicated ones.
