Daily Technical Analysis By GoLearnForex
USD/JPY:
The Dollar Yen has been relatively volatile as of late. On the chart below there are levels of support and resistance indicated by the bright green horizontal lines. We have now tested 89.90 twice on the close.
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Additionally, the 50 day MA is closing in on that level. If an entire candle sits above the 50 Day MA then we would expect price to move towards the next resistance level at 92.00. However, if the price closes below 89.90 then we would expect a further drop to the next level of support at 88.00.
Lastly, one additional chart to look at is the correlation between the DXY (which is an indexed weight of the dollar, based on a basket of currencies) versus the Yen. What you see since April is that as the DXY has depreciated the JPY has appreciated. If you have a negative dollar bias than you will want to go Long the Yen as we approach S&R.
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USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar is in a very vulnerable position at this juncture. Fundamentally, the CAD has come under pressure from its own Central Bank as well as recent poor economic data. It completely retraced its mover lower towards Dollar parity.
I looked at the CAD over a number of different tenors from a 4 hour to a Daily to a Weekly. On each of those charts there were technical indications that the CAD maybe in trouble. I will focus on the weekly chart, although I do not trade from a weekly but rather use it for confirmation of trends.
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Based on the chart above there are 3 points that get my attention even before we look at any additional oscillators or indicators or the like. 1) The red rectangular box shows levels congestion or S&R for the CAD. 2) The red lines that make up the ‘v’ shows a complete retrace of the previous move 3) In the square red box you have a “Hammer” shaped candle (although it more so resembles a mallet). A trader who purely uses candles would have closed out his Long CAD position after the formation of the Hammer on a weekly chart.
Looking at the daily chart the CAD is also closing in on the 50 day MA. It is very possible that on poorer than expected economic news from Canada or a firmed greenback that the CAD will touch 1.10 this week.
G-20 Decides Economic Stimulus Will Continue By GoLearnForex
Equity Futures are mostly negative tonight suggesting a slightly lower open. This weekend saw the board of governors from the G-20 assemble. Although a number of important topics were discussed there was agreement amongst the board that economic stimulus should not be removed until further signs of a steadied economy are present.
We closed out last week with a bang as U.S Unemployment printed worse than expected to 10.2%. This obviously concerns investors that if unemployment does not at least bottom it could derail the already fragile economic recovery.
There was a slightly quieter week this week on the data front. We will be watching the Canadian Housing Starts for October. Although we do not expect any surprises here, nonetheless the CAD is quite volatile these days.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 9, 2009
CAD Housing Starts Forecast 155.00K Previous 150.00K
JPY Bank Lending (YoY) Previous 1.60%
GBP RICS House Price Balance Forecast 29.00% Previous 22.00%
AUD NAB Business Confidence Previous 14.00
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net


